Sunday, August 12, 2007

Romney Wins the Iowa Straw Poll

Romney 32%, Huckabee 18%, Brownback 15%

I suspect Brownback is toast.

I don’t think it’ll have currency for more than a couple of weeks, but at least right now, it’s Clinton and Romney who seem to have the all the mo’. Romney’s is pretty ephemeral, considering his most important rivals didn’t straw-poll with him, but right now, today, it’s fair to see him this way, I think.

I like this match up - I can’t see Romney eliciting much passion among the Republicans. Ignoring his obvious problem with Christian bigots (hey, I’m an atheist bigot, I don’t have much use for wacky cults, even if they take over Utah) I don’t believe Romney catches on fire. I don’t think he has much charisma, except in an oily CEO/Head of Sales sense which might work for pragmatic Chamber of Commerce types, but which I doubt translates to the base. On the other hand, I think the Democrat generically inherits a lot of built-in warm-and-fuzziness, which not even Senator Clinton – in fact, giving credit where it’s due, it’s probably no longer to fair to imply that she’s a klutz on this level – which none of the top six or seven seem likely to squander.

I don’t feel quite as sanguine, when I consider Giuliani; but he’s got his own significant hurdles. I don’t believe its going to be easy to predict how he’s going to go over with the Republican base. My gut says not particularly well, but it, rightfully, doesn’t earn a salary.

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